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2024 A-Level · Paper 2 · Question 7

2024 H2 Maths Paper 2, Question 7

Probability 8 marks combined events
Download Paper 2 solutions (PDF)

Part (a)(i)

1 mark
P(A finds prize)=2nP\left( A\text{ finds prize} \right) = \frac{2}{n}

Explanation: AA opens 2 of the nn boxes at random, and the prize is in exactly one of the nn boxes, so the probability that it is among the 2 AA opens is 2n\frac{2}{n}.

Part (a)(ii)

1 mark

If AA fails, the prize is among the remaining n−2n - 2 boxes, so

P(A fails)=1−2n=n−2nP\left( A\text{ fails} \right) = 1 - \frac{2}{n} = \frac{n - 2}{n}

Given AA fails, BB opens 2 of the remaining n−2n - 2 boxes at random, so

P(B finds prize∣A fails)=2n−2P\left( B\text{ finds prize} \mid A\text{ fails} \right) = \frac{2}{n - 2}

Multiplying,

P(B finds prize)=P(A fails)×P(B finds prize∣A fails)P\left( B\text{ finds prize} \right) = P\left( A\text{ fails} \right) \times P\left( B\text{ finds prize} \mid A\text{ fails} \right)
=n−2n×2n−2= \frac{n - 2}{n} \times \frac{2}{n - 2}
=2n= \frac{2}{n}

∴\therefore P(B finds prize)=2nP\left( B\text{ finds prize} \right) = \frac{2}{n}.  (shown)

Part (a)(iii)

3 marks

Since AA, BB, CC finding the prize are mutually exclusive and exhaustive,

P(C finds prize)=1−P(A finds)−P(B finds)P\left( C\text{ finds prize} \right) = 1 - P\left( A\text{ finds} \right) - P\left( B\text{ finds} \right)
=1−2n−2n= 1 - \frac{2}{n} - \frac{2}{n}
=n−4n= \frac{n - 4}{n}

The probability that either AA or BB finds the prize (mutually exclusive events) is

P(A finds)+P(B finds)=2n+2n=4nP\left( A\text{ finds} \right) + P\left( B\text{ finds} \right) = \frac{2}{n} + \frac{2}{n} = \frac{4}{n}

Requiring P(C finds prize)P\left( C\text{ finds prize} \right) to be more than 8 times this,

n−4n>8×4n\frac{n - 4}{n} > 8 \times \frac{4}{n}
=32n= \frac{32}{n}

Since n>4>0n > 4 > 0, we multiply both sides by nn:

n−4>32n - 4 > 32
⇒n>36\Rightarrow n > 36
To check your answer: at n=37n = 37, P(C)=3337≈0.892P(C) = \frac{33}{37} \approx 0.892 and 8×437=3237≈0.8658 \times \frac{4}{37} = \frac{32}{37} \approx 0.865; indeed 0.892>0.8650.892 > 0.865 ✓

∴\therefore n>36n > 36.

Part (b)

3 marks

Approach

a Venn diagram for QQ and RR has four regions — Q∩RQ \cap R, Q∩R′Q \cap R', Q′∩RQ'\cap R and (Q∪R)′(Q \cup R)' — whose probabilities sum to 11. Writing P(Q)=qP(Q) = q and P(R)=rP(R) = r, each given piece of information becomes one linear equation in qq, rr and xx, and solving the resulting system gives xx.

Let P(Q)=qP(Q) = q and P(R)=rP(R) = r. Since Q=(Q∩R)∪(Q∩R′)Q = (Q \cap R) \cup (Q \cap R'),

q=x+0.1...(1)q = x + 0.1\quad\text{...(1)}

Since P(Q′∩R)=P(R)−P(Q∩R)=r−xP(Q'\cap R) = P(R) - P(Q \cap R) = r - x, and this equals P(Q)=qP(Q) = q,

r−x=qr - x = q
⇒r=q+x...(2)\Rightarrow r = q + x\quad\text{...(2)}

Since P((Q∪R)′)=1−P(Q∪R)=1−(q+r−x)P\left( (Q \cup R)'\right) = 1 - P(Q \cup R) = 1 - (q + r - x), and this equals P(Q)+2P(R)=q+2rP(Q) + 2P(R) = q + 2r,

1−q−r+x=q+2r1 - q - r + x = q + 2r
⇒1+x=2q+3r...(3)\Rightarrow 1 + x = 2q + 3r\quad\text{...(3)}

Substituting (1) into (2),

r=(x+0.1)+x=2x+0.1r = (x + 0.1) + x = 2x + 0.1

Substituting q=x+0.1q = x + 0.1 and r=2x+0.1r = 2x + 0.1 into (3),

1+x=2(x+0.1)+3(2x+0.1)1 + x = 2(x + 0.1) + 3(2x + 0.1)
=2x+0.2+6x+0.3= 2x + 0.2 + 6x + 0.3
=8x+0.5= 8x + 0.5

Solving,

1+x=8x+0.51 + x = 8x + 0.5
⇒0.5=7x\Rightarrow 0.5 = 7x
⇒x=114\Rightarrow x = \frac{1}{14}
To check your answer: with x=114x = \frac{1}{14}, q=x+0.1=635q = x + 0.1 = \frac{6}{35} and r=2x+0.1=1770r = 2x + 0.1 = \frac{17}{70}, so 1+x=15141 + x = \frac{15}{14} and 2q+3r=1235+5170=15142q + 3r = \frac{12}{35} + \frac{51}{70} = \frac{15}{14} — equal ✓

∴\therefore x=114x = \frac{1}{14}.

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